The international environment of 2026 has forced governments to reconsider assumptions that seemed relatively comfortable only a few years ago. The continuing war in Ukraine, the U.S. operation in Venezuela, the war involving the United States, Israel, and the Iranian regime, severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, tensions across the Taiwan Strait, and renewed arguments over European defense have all changed how political leaders evaluate power, credibility, and risk. These events are interconnected not because they form part of a single conflict, but because every government watches what happens elsewhere and updates its expectations about what allies and adversaries are willing and able to do.
Continue readingU.S. Foreign Policy
Trump’s Visit to Mainland China: Tactical Easing, Structural Rivalry, and the Real Taiwan Question
Donald Trump’s visit to Mainland China should not be misunderstood as the end of strategic confrontation between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party. In the short term, bilateral relations may indeed become more manageable. The two sides reportedly discussed trade, tariffs, agriculture, aviation, technology, Taiwan, and the Iranian regime; Reuters described the trade outcomes as “preliminary,” with tentative understandings rather than a grand settlement.
Continue readingReading the US Strategy in the U.S.–Iranian Regime Crisis
In moments of crisis, the most important analytical task is not to react to tone, but to identify strategic intent. That distinction matters greatly in judging recent U.S. behavior toward the Iranian regime. Many observers focused first on Donald Trump’s language: the ultimatum, the threat of devastating strikes, and the rhetoric surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the more consequential question is whether these moves formed part of a coherent bargaining strategy. If one examines the sequence carefully, the answer is yes. The pattern was one of escalation, deadline compression, selective military signaling, and then a narrowly defined off-ramp toward a temporary ceasefire and negotiations. It is reported that Trump publicly tied his threats to reopening Hormuz, then agreed to suspend bombing for two weeks; shortly before the deadline expired, Pakistan announced that the United States and the Iranian regime had agreed to an immediate ceasefire, with follow-up talks to continue in Islamabad. Reuters and AP likewise described a two-week halt linked to renewed talks rather than a settled peace.
Continue readingIncentives, Burden-Sharing, and the Reconfiguration of the International Security Order
In the current international security landscape, one can observe a phenomenon that deserves careful and dispassionate analysis. The pressure exerted by Donald Trump on NATO allies—particularly regarding defense spending and strategic responsibility—has, in the short term, led several member states to reassess their own security obligations. One visible consequence has been a renewed European attention to strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy flows.
This development has attracted criticism. Some argue that such pressure undermines the so-called “postwar international order.” Yet this criticism often rests on an insufficiently examined premise: that the existing order is both neutral and self-sustaining. A closer look at the historical evolution of that order suggests otherwise.
Continue reading
